As the global supply chain continues to recover from the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns are being raised about the possibility of another surge in China. This is particularly concerning for the shipping industry, which relies heavily on Chinese exports.

However, there are several reasons to believe that the likelihood of another surge in China may be low. Firstly, a large portion of the Chinese population has already been infected with COVID-19 since the country re-opened in late 2022. This means that many people have developed immunity, which may help to prevent another surge in cases.

Secondly, as we enter the summer season, the spread of COVID-19 may be further reduced. This is because warmer temperatures and increased humidity have been shown to decrease the transmission of respiratory viruses.

Lastly, while the COVID-19 pandemic has been ongoing for more than three years, it is worth noting that the Spanish flu pandemic, which killed millions of people, lasted less than three years. This suggests that COVID-19 may also come to an end in the near future.

In conclusion, while it is always important to be prepared for potential disruptions to the global supply chain, there are several factors that suggest that the likelihood of another surge in China may be low. As such, it may be more productive to focus on strategies to build resilience in the supply chain rather than worrying excessively about a potential surge..